TAMPA, Fla. – Tropical Depression Fourteen formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and could pose a significant threat to Florida in the coming days.
The system has rapidly organized over the past 24 hours. The NHC has indicated that hurricane and storm surge watches may be issued for parts of Florida by Sunday. Current projections suggest the depression could strengthen into a storm, named Milton, as it tracks eastward across the warm and favorable waters of the Gulf.
Forecast models are divided, with potential landfall areas ranging from Florida’s Big Bend to southern portions of the state. However, most models indicate that Tampa Bay is within the storm’s likely path. As part of ongoing preparations, Hurricane Hunters will soon begin flying into the system to gather more data, which will help fine-tune the storm’s projected path and intensity.
Floridians can expect rounds of heavy rain starting Sunday as the storm approaches from the west. Landfall is currently projected for Wednesday, with the storm likely to move across the state and into the Atlantic afterward. The exact trajectory will determine the severity of storm surge, wind speeds, and the heaviest rainfall locations. Several inches of rain are expected across Florida, particularly from Monday through Wednesday.
Meteorologists remain uncertain about the storm’s intensity, with some models predicting a tropical storm while others suggest it could strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane. The worst of the storm surge is expected to occur south of the storm’s center, while heavier rains are likely to fall north of it.
The Tampa Bay area could see the most severe weather on Wednesday, with conditions expected to