A tropical moisture surge is moving into the Suncoast this weekend with significant rain expected through next Thursday. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for flooding from Sunday morning through Monday morning, with the heaviest rainfall expected Sunday. Some areas around the region have already received over four inches of rain in the past 24 hours, and the atmosphere is saturated with tropical moisture that will keep rain chances elevated throughout the multi-day system.
The timeline looks like this: Friday starts relatively calm with a 40% chance of scattered rain and occasional heavy downpours, but most of the day is manageable. Saturday’s pattern shifts with rain chances climbing to 60%, and the most active period hits late afternoon into evening. Sunday emerges as the critical day. While major river and stream flooding isn’t expected, street flooding is possible in isolated areas with poor drainage due to the heavy rainfall intensity. Driving conditions could become dangerous, and some streets may become impassable. By Wednesday, what remains of Tropical Storm Dolly could contribute additional moisture despite being weakened by wind shear and dry air aloft.
Your best move is to prepare now. Clear your gutters, make sure any sump pumps are working properly, charge all your devices, and plan to stay off the roads Sunday and Monday if you can. Friday afternoon offers the last safe window for boating and outdoor activities before the system intensifies. Keep an eye on local rainfall totals as Sunday approaches, and don’t underestimate standing water on the roads—even a foot of moving water can sweep a vehicle off the street. Are you prepared for the weekend ahead, or do you need to grab supplies today?
